John Williams (shadowstats.com) on the December payroll jobs report and unemployment rate

January 11, 2015

John Williams (shadowstats.com) on the December payroll jobs report and unemployment rate:

As increasingly has become the common circumstance, the upside revisions in headline monthly numbers simply are constructs of highly unstable, inconsistent and questionable seasonal adjustments being shifted between months. The unadjusted data do not revise, but the adjusted data pick up bogus growth from gimmicked reporting . . .

Counting All Discouraged Workers, December 2014 Unemployment Was 23.0%. . . . More than anything else, though, what removes headline-unemployment reporting from broad underlying economic reality and common experience simply is definitional. To be counted among the headline unemployed (U.3), an individual has to have looked for work actively within the four weeks prior to the unemployment survey. If the active search for work was in the last year, but not in the last four weeks, the individual is considered a “discouraged worker” by the BLS [and not counted in the U.3 measure]. ShadowStats defines that group as “short-term discouraged workers,” as opposed to those who become “long-term discouraged workers” after one year.

Moving on top of U.3, the broader U.6 unemployment measure includes only the short-term discouraged workers. The still-broader ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Measure includes an estimate of all discouraged workers, including those discouraged for one year or more, as the BLS used to measure the series pre-1994, and as Statistics Canada still does.

When the headline unemployed [U.3 measure] become “discouraged,” they are rolled over from U.3 to U.6. As the short-term discouraged workers roll over into long-term discouraged status, they move into the ShadowStats measure, where they remain. Aside from attrition, they are not defined out of existence for political convenience, hence the longer-term divergence between the various unemployment rates. Further detail is discussed in the Reporting Detail section. The resulting difference here is between a headline December 2014 unemployment rates of 5.6% (U.3) and 23.0% (ShadowStats). [The U.6 unemployment rate containing the short-term discouraged workers is 11.2%.]

[The 23% unemployment rate is consistent with the declining Civilian Employment-Population Ratio and the declining Labor Force Participation Rate. The rise in discouraged workers is reflected in the decline in these ratios.]

[Are you surprised that the government lies about the number of new jobs and the unemployment rate? Why are you surprised? The government lies about everything–”Iraqi weapons of mass destruction,” “Iranian nukes,” “Assad’s use of chemical weapons,” “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” etc.]

[John Williams also reports that the Birth/Death Model used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics assumes that more jobs are created each month by new startups than are lost by companies going out of business. The excess of new startups over closures currently adds an average of 61,000 jobs each month. In other words, these jobs are spun off of the assumptions of a model and are likely to be phantom jobs.]

[There is also the issue of data falsification by the Census Bureau reported in the New York Post by John Crudele and under congressional investigation. http://nypost.com/2015/01/06/call-congressman-for-some-good-common-census/ ]

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If You Watch Television, You Are Going to Die!

09 Jan, 2015 by Dave Hodges thecommonsenseshow.com

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The collapse of the American economy has begun in earnest despite the fact that the American people are being propagandized in earnest that economic recovery is right around corner. Right around corner? Just like reinforcements for General Custer’s forces were right around the corner? And the American economy is poised to suffer the same fate as General Custer.

This article comes with a black box warning: If you watch mainstream media news, you are likely going to die because you will delay preparing for the inevitable.

Mainstream Media States Everything Is Awesome

While sitting in the doctor’s waiting room, I was subjected to watching Fox News. By golly, that was the placebo that I needed to start feeling better. All the way through the broadcast is was one steady stream of rosy facts about America’s economic recovery. I was so inspired, I thought I should call financial planner and have him open an account with Merrill Lynch. And then I woke up.

The mainstream media’s propaganda approach to convincing the public that “happy days” are just around the corner has a decided agenda. Do you remember the grade B movie, Mars Attacks? As the aliens were leaving their craft in Pahrump, NV., they were saying “don’t be afraid, we come in peace” as they shooting death rays at anyone in their sight. This is what the mainstream media is doing as they are saying “America is financially healthy again”.

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The bankers need for you to leave your money right where it is in the stock market, in the bank and in your retirement because they have targeted everything of value that you own. We are going to awake one morning and it is going to be all gone.

MSM Lies Exposed

One of the rosy numbers that American economic apologists point to is the growth in the stock market. However, the growth in the Stock Market has nothing to do with mainstream America has nothing to do. One percent of the investors, on Wall Street, make about 80% of the money. Even Goldman Sachs acknowledges this. “From Goldman Sachs:

We expect corporations will continue to be the largest source of demand for stocks, and we expect net purchases by corporations will total $450 billion or about 2% of public equity cap”.

The Rest Of The Story Here

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FEMA Camps Will Soon Outnumber Banks

08 Jan, 2015 by Dave Hodges

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In life, how many times have we seen that two similar men face a set of similar circumstances only to witness two entirely different outcomes? One man meets the challenges, grows stronger and more successful as a result. The other man ignores the crisis at first, hoping that it will go away. When the denials breakdown, the second man feels overwhelmed and succumbs to the problem and his life is subsequently ripped apart.

Nations are like people, they have a character, a personality and a persona. They either have resilience and can bounce back from adversity, or they do not. They either have courage or they cower in the corner because they are weak and timid in the face of danger. And like with the two men, when countries face the same challenges, one country may thrive and the other country takes a dive.

When we look at how two countries, Iceland and the United States, responded to economic Armageddon in 2008, one country was head and shoulders above the other in terms of displaying a spirit of resilience.

The 2008 World’s Economic Meltdown Began In Iceland

America is once again ready to enter into the economic disaster zone in a much more significant manner than we did in 2008. Iceland has already been there and their journey was inspired and controlled by Goldman Sachs and fellow Wall Street banksters. Iceland’s journey down the path to economic Armageddon actually began in the late 1990s and early 2000’s, when Iceland’s Prime Minister David Oddsson, began to do the bidding of Wall Street bankers and instituted a set of Reagan-style policies and privatization. According to author, Roger Boyes, as he documented the world’s descent into economic tyranny in his former best-selling book, Meltdown Iceland, Boyes stated that “the fix was in”and Wall Street began to financially obliterate Iceland after plundering its hard assets.

Under the globalists from Wall Street, the Iceland’s banking sector grew rapidly, propelled by borrowed money. Icelanders could access credit easily in just the same manner as pre-2008 crash America. Iceland had its own devastating housing bubble as housing prices escalated exponentially and consumption skyrocketed. In order to attract international currency investments, Iceland raised its interest rates to 15% and the same devastating consequences which befell America was visited upon Iceland. In 2003-2004, prices on the Iceland stock market increased 900% before crashing.America, are you nervous yet?

Iceland’s bubble was no different than any other economic bubble. By 2006, what I call the heroin effect kicked in and the average Icelander was 300% wealthier than in 2003, but hopelessly in debt. Iceland was experiencing a 1929 pre-crash America as well as the symptoms of our impending crash in 2013. The citizens were seduced by easy money and acted as if they were addicted heroin. Meanwhile, the government, banking and corporate debt grew out of control until the time to pay up finally arrived.

By 2008 Iceland’s banks collapsed, it was time for Icelanders to pay for their extravagant ways and 50,000 of its people’s savings were wiped out (that represents one in three adults in Iceland lost their bank accounts). Keep in mind that Iceland only has a population of 300,000. If those same numbers were to be visited upon America, we would be looking 50 million Americans having their savings wiped out. Let me ask the same question that I always ask at this point. Do you now understand why DHS has purchased 2.2 billion rounds of ammunition to go with 2700 armored personnel carriers?

The problem for Icelanders became far worse as by 2009, 25% of homeowners went into mortgage default. Please allow me to ask another rhetorical question, do you now see why the Federal Reserve spent two years buying $40 billion dollars in mortgage backed securities each and every month beginning in September of 2012?

People of America, can you spell f-e-u-d-a-l-i-s-m?

The Rest Of The Story Here

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It’s Here! “It’s Not Coming, It Is Here” Now! – Michael Rosecliff On Hagmann And Hagmann

Tuesday, January 6, 2015
By Susan Duclos Allnewspipeline.com

Doug and Joe Hagmann are joined by Michael Rosecliff, who explains what we are seeing economically, happening right now. Before getting into the bombshell Rosecliff drops on listeners, it is noteworthy that Rosecliff is the founder of the ArcLight Institute, which provides global economic forcasting and investment strategies, with an overwhelming 96 percent accuracy rating.

Via Hagmann and Hagmann video details:

ArcLight Systems are the product of close a decade and a half’s worth of work. Immediately following the events of 9/11, a small but elite group of technologists from a variety of disciplines chose to set out and do the improbable: Design a system that uses a variety of metrics to predict future global occurrences, as well as decode past events.

For those of us that are not finanical gurus, investors, or economists, Rosecliff provides an easily understandable explanation of what we are seeing happen now from the Dow dive to the low gas prices, using past trends in order to forecast what is coming in 2015.

Rosecliff starts with the economy where he informs us that “we have yet begin to see” the “forces of inflation,” as he explains the similarities of what we are seeing with the US dollar to the Weimar Republic currency crash, more can be read here about that, and when asked by Doug Hagmann if that is what is coming, Rosecliff drops this bombshell: “It’s here! It’s not coming, it’s here!”

With the low energy prices, the undesirable dollar and the BRICS able to crush the US Dollar whenever they want, Rosecliff tells us what to expect in 2015 and it isn’t a pretty picture.

This is definitely a must-listen to show for those that want to understand what all of the current news actually means for them and what to expect in the coming months.

(Language Warning!)

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Global Depression In 2015

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SAYONARA GLOBAL ECONOMY

Posted on 4th January 2015 by theburningplatform.com

There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises
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The surreal nature of this world as we enter 2015 feels like being trapped in a Fellini movie. The .1% party like it’s 1999, central bankers not only don’t take away the punch bowl – they spike it with 200% grain alcohol, the purveyors of propaganda in the mainstream media encourage the party to reach Caligula orgy levels, the captured political class and their government apparatchiks propagate manipulated and massaged economic data to convince the masses their standard of living isn’t really deteriorating, and the entire façade is supposedly validated by all-time highs in the stock market. It’s nothing but mass delusion perpetuated by the issuance of prodigious amounts of debt by central bankers around the globe. And nowhere has the obliteration of a currency through money printing been more flagrant than in the land of the setting sun – Japan. The leaders of this former economic juggernaut have chosen to commit hari-kari on behalf of the Japanese people, while enriching the elite, insiders, bankers, and their global banking co-conspirators.

Japan is just the point of the global debt spear in a world gone mad. Total world debt, excluding financial firms, now exceeds $100 trillion. The worldwide banking syndicate has an additional $130 trillion of debt on their insolvent books. As if this wasn’t enough, there are over $700 trillion of derivatives of mass destruction layered on top in this pyramid of debt. Just five Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks control 95% of the $302 trillion U.S. derivatives market. The reason Jamie Dimon and the rest of the leaders of the Wall Street criminal syndicate commanded their politician puppets in Congress to reverse the Dodd Frank rule on separating derivatives trading from normal bank lending is because these high stakes gamblers want to shift their future losses onto the backs of middle class taxpayers – again. The bankers, with the full support of their captured Washington politicians, will abscond with the deposits of the people to pay for their system destroying risk taking, just as they did in 2008 by holding taxpayers hostage for a $700 billion bailout.

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Only the ignorant, intellectually dishonest, employees of the Deep State, CNBC cheerleaders for the oligarchy, or Ivy League educated Keynesian loving economists choose to be willfully ignorant regarding the true cause of the 2008 implosion of the worldwide financial system. The immense expansion of credit in the U.S. from 2000 through 2008 was created, encouraged, supported and sustained by Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and their cohorts at the Federal Reserve through their reckless lowering of interest rates and abdication of regulatory oversight, as their owner banks committed the greatest financial control fraud in world history. Total credit market debt in the U.S. grew from $25 trillion in 2000 (already up 100% from $12.5 trillion in 1990) to $53 trillion by 2008.

The bankers, politicians, mainstream media corporations, and mega-corporations that run the show lured Americans into increasing their credit card, auto loan, and student loan debt from $1.6 trillion in 2000 to $2.7 trillion in 2008, while extracting over $600 billion of phantom home equity from their McMansions. And it was all spent on things they didn’t need, produced in Chinese slave labor factories. The mal-investment boom was epic and the collapse in 2008 would have purged the bad debt, punished the risk takers, bankrupted the criminal banks, reset the financial system, and taught generations a lesson they needed to learn – excess debt kills. Instead of voluntarily abandoning the madness of never ending credit expansion and accepting the consequences of their folly, the world’s central bankers and captured politician hacks chose to save bankers, billionaires, and the ruling elite at the expense of the common people.

The Rest Of The Story Here

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11 Predictions Of Economic Disaster In 2015 From Top Experts All Over The Globe

By Michael Snyder, on January 4th, 2015

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Will 2015 be a year of financial crashes, economic chaos and the start of the next great worldwide depression? Over the past couple of years, we have all watched as global financial bubbles have gotten larger and larger. Despite predictions that they could burst at any time, they have just continued to expand. But just like we witnessed in 2001 and 2008, all financial bubbles come to an end at some point, and when they do implode the pain can be extreme. Personally, I am entirely convinced that the financial markets are more primed for a financial collapse now than they have been at any other time since the last crisis happened nearly seven years ago. And I am certainly not alone. At this point, the warning cries have become a deafening roar as a whole host of prominent voices have stepped forward to sound the alarm. The following are 11 predictions of economic disaster in 2015 from top experts all over the globe…

#1 Bill Fleckenstein: “They are trying to make the stock market go up and drag the economy along with it. It’s not going to work. There’s going to be a big accident. When people realize that it’s all a charade, the dollar will tank, the stock market will tank, and hopefully bond markets will tank. Gold will rally in that period of time because it’s done what it’s done because people have assumed complete infallibility on the part of the central bankers.”

#2 John Ficenec: “In the US, Professor Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio – or Shiller CAPE – for the S&P 500 is currently at 27.2, some 64pc above the historic average of 16.6. On only three occasions since 1882 has it been higher – in 1929, 2000 and 2007.”

#3 Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, one of the most respected economic journalists on the entire planet: “The eurozone will be in deflation by February, forlornly trying to ignite its damp wood by rubbing stones. Real interest rates will ratchet higher. The debt load will continue to rise at a faster pace than nominal GDP across Club Med. The region will sink deeper into a compound interest trap.”

#4 The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, which correctly predicted the bursting of the subprime mortgage bubble in 2007: “Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggests movement toward a 2015 downturn.”

#5 Paul Craig Roberts: “At any time the Western house of cards could collapse. It (the financial system) is a house of cards. There are no economic fundamentals that support stock prices — the Dow Jones. There are no economic fundamentals that support the strong dollar…”

#6 David Tice: “I have the same kind of feel in ’98 and ’99; also ’05 and ’06. This is going to end badly. I have every confidence in the world.”

#7 Liz Capo McCormick and Susanne Walker: “Get ready for a disastrous year for U.S. government bonds. That’s the message forecasters on Wall Street are sending.”

#8 Phoenix Capital Research: “Just about everything will be hit as well. Most of the ‘recovery’ of the last five years has been fueled by cheap borrowed Dollars. Now that the US Dollar has broken out of a multi-year range, you’re going to see more and more ‘risk assets’ (read: projects or investments fueled by borrowed Dollars) blow up. Oil is just the beginning, not a standalone story.

If things really pick up steam, there’s over $9 TRILLION worth of potential explosions waiting in the wings. Imagine if the entire economies of both Germany and Japan exploded and you’ve got a decent idea of the size of the potential impact on the financial system.”

#9 Rob Kirby: “What this breakdown in the crude oil price is going to spawn another financial crisis. It will be tied to the junk debt that has been issued to finance the shale oil plays in North America. It is reported to be in the area of half a trillion dollars worth of junk debt that is held largely on the books of large financial institutions in the western world. When these bonds start to fail, they will jeopardize the future of these financial institutions. I do believe that will be the signal for the Fed to come riding to the rescue with QE4. I also think QE4 is likely going to be accompanied by bank bail-ins because we all know all western world countries have adopted bail-in legislation in their most recent budgets. The financial elites are engineering the excuse for their next round of money printing . . . and they will be confiscating money out of savings accounts and pension accounts. That’s what I think is coming in the very near future.”

#10 John Ing: “The 2008 collapse was just a dress rehearsal compared to what the world is going to face this time around. This time we have governments which are even more highly leveraged than the private sector was.

So this time the collapse will be on a scale that is many magnitudes greater than what the world witnessed in 2008.”

#11 Gerald Celente: “What does the word confidence mean? Break it down. In this case confidence = con men and con game. That’s all it is. So people will lose confidence in the con men because they have already shown their cards. It’s a Ponzi scheme. So the con game is running out and they don’t have any more cards to play.

What are they going to do? They can’t raise interest rates. We saw what happened in the beginning of December when the equity markets started to unravel. So it will be a loss of confidence in the con game and the con game is soon coming to an end. That is when you are going to see panic on Wall Street and around the world.”

If you have been following my website, you know that I have been pointing to 2015 for quite some time now.

For example, in my article entitled “The Seven Year Cycle Of Economic Crashes That Everyone Is Talking About“, I discussed the pattern of financial crashes that we have witnessed every seven years that goes all the way back to the Great Depression. The last two major stock market crashes began in 2001 and 2008, and now here we are seven years later.

Will the same pattern hold up once again?

In addition, there are many other economic cycles that seem to indicate that we are due for a major economic downturn. I discussed quite a few of these theories in my article entitled “If Economic Cycle Theorists Are Correct, 2015 To 2020 Will Be Pure Hell For The United States“.

But just like in 2000 and 2007, there are a whole host of doubters that are fully convinced that the party can continue indefinitely. Even though our economic fundamentals continue to get worse, our debt levels continue to grow and every objective measurement shows that Wall Street is more reckless and more vulnerable to collapse than ever before, they mock the idea that a financial collapse is imminent.

So let’s see what happens in 2015.

I have a feeling that it is going to be an extremely “interesting” year.

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There Is No Recovery From America’s Economic Extinction Level Event

02 Jan, 2015 by Dave Hodges thecommonsenseshow.com

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The massacre of Greek citizens under their Goldman Sachs controlled puppets, continues and Greeks are dying while the banks are getting paid for their bad credit swap derivatives. Greece is on the verge of a grass roots led civil war. Why should America be any different than Greece? The reason that the banking and retirement accounts of Greece have been destroyed is because Greece was chosen by the banksters to pillage their economy in order to help pay off their derivatives debt.

The passage of the Bail-outs was the day that America committed suicide.
The passage of the Bankster bailouts was the day that America committed suicide.

Think of Greece as being an appendage and the appendage belongs to a man who has a staff infection which is rapidly spreading through his system. To save the patient from dying, the patient must first have his hand amputated. When the doctors are unable to stop the infection from spreading, Spain and Italy are the next amputations to be performed as the other hand is amputated. This will be followed by bail-ins for the G-20 nations and that is when both arms will be cut off by the banksters as they attempt to stay one step ahead of the burning bridge with regard to the derivatives debt. After the patient has lost both hands, both arms, it is time to begin thinking about amputating both legs as the credit swap derivatives infection begins to spread with greater rapidity. This would be the United States. We are about ready to have every financial asset amputated and removed from our custody. And at the end of the day, it is not going to matter, because the patient is terminal. Welcome to the world of credit swap derivatives which have dealt a death blow the global economy. 2

What Every American Should Know

I believe that there are some things that nearly every American can do to soften the landing. However, based upon some of the comments that I am receiving on the website from my previous articles on this topic, it is clear that most people do not have a clue on how credit swap derivatives work and why their existence guarantees the economic collapse of the United States.

The purpose of this article is to remove the child-like false belief that there will be any meaningful economic recovery. The only way to stave off a complete economic collapse is to totally repudiate the debt. That will be a cold day in hell when repudiation of the debt happens, because the people who run our economy are the ones who have both created the debt and are also owed most of the debt.

I REPEAT, THERE IS NOTHING THAT WE CAN COLLECTIVELY DO IN ORDER TO STAVE OFF AN ECONOMIC COLLAPSE! IF YOU ARE WILLING TO WALK THROUGH A SIMPLE EXPLANATION OF THE CREDIT SWAP DERIVATIVES DEBT, YOU WILL SEE THAT THE SURVIVAL OF AMERICA’S ECONOMY IS IMPOSSIBLE, WE HAVE JUST EXPERIENCED AN ECONOMIC EXTINCTION LEVEL EVENT.

The Final Death Blow to America Began With the Credit Swap Derivatives

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Insanity!
Insanity!

Raise your hands if you knew that on October 21, 2011 that the Bank of America got the FDIC to ensure its $75 trillion credit swap derivatives debts with money, from the FDIC, that is supposed to insure our bank deposits? You may keep your hands down, because hardly anyone knew of this bank heist by stealth. By the way, all the megabanks have received the same promise from the FDIC. Where is your guarantee from the FDIC?

The total value of all assets in the United States amounts to approximately $20 trillion dollars. How can the U.S. government guarantee triple the value of the U.S. economy as it did with Bank of America? The FDIC is insuring a house of cards that can only bankrupt the country. Does it now make sense why the FDIC sponsored a conference held in Britain along with the top banking officials from both Britain and the U.S. (e.g. Janet Yellen) in which they practiced how to respond to widespread banking failures? This activity took place on November 10, 2014 in London.

To comprehend the seriousness of the derivatives threat to the American and global economy, one has to first understand how our home mortgages have been impacted by the biggest Ponzi scheme in world history. Did you know, for example, that your $200,000 home loan, has been combined with other home loans to create a derivatives set of holdings that is bet on in the futures commodity market? For example, your individual home loan of $200,000 ends up backing up the $20,000,000 of home loan values in the sale of derivatives at your local bank. In other words, America, your home mortgage is being used to underwrite the banksters and their credit swap derivatives. Home mortgages are now a traded commodity. Therefore, when you make your monthly mortgage payment, you are not paying down your mortgage, you are paying the derivatives debt of the banksters who have hijacked this country.

The Rest Of The Story Here

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The Four Things You Can Count On Following the Collapse of the Dollar

01 Jan, 2015 by Dave Hodges

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It is easy to interpret the signals of our economy from afar when we see people driving cars everywhere and we tend to think that our economy is not that bad. However, the fact remains that 40 years ago Americans owned those cars that we see them driving. Today, we are renting them as 40% of us are leasing our vehicles. As we drive up and down our neighborhoods, we see people living in houses and we lie to ourselves as use this as a false barometer to convince ourselves that everything is OK. However, many of these homes we see people living in, have lost all of their equity. The logical answer to the question “When will we have a depression”, should be answered by stating “We have an $18 trillion dollar annual deficit and that is the good news. We have $240 trillion dollars of debt from unfunded liabilities and we have a stunning $1.5 quadrillion dollar debt. So, you better grab all the food, water, guns and ammunition that you can run for the hills”! But as long we see people driving in cars and living in houses, most Americans are gong to deny the truth. And the last thing that I wanted to do on the first day of a new year, was to be the harbinger of doom and gloom. Yet, I feel compelled to speak the truth., on this New Year’s Day, because I might be able to get one more person to take the steps necessary to help increase the odds of their survival in response to what is coming. History shows that one can count on four things occurring following the collapse of the dollar.

The Last Great American Garage Sale

On multiple occasions in this column, I have thoroughly documented the following facts which demonstrate that the banksters are stealing our assets in preparation for them to economically survive what is coming:

1. The Seventh Circuit Court Of Appeals ruled that when you put money into the bank, you have transferred ownership of that money to the bank. This ruling represents government sponsored theft in the highest order, yet most of us are unaware that this happened.

2. The G20 Nations declared the money in your bank account to not be money. Therefore, the FDIC insurance for your savings.

3. The MERS mortgage fraud is ongoing and homeowners are still having their homes stolen without legal justification.

4. The Federal Reserve, in 2012, began to print money to the tune of $40 billion dollars a month in order to purchase mortgage backed securities.

5. The banksters have practiced stealing the secured accounts of American in the MF Global (MFG) scandal, resulting in the loss of $6.3 billion dollars of secured investment funds. Nobody went to jail.

The Rest Of The Story Here

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